2025-conflict-report

2025 Global Conflict & Geopolitical Volatility

An Era of Intensification and Fragmentation

The year 2025 is defined by a historic peak in state-based conflicts, the worsening of long-running wars, and severe degradation of international security. This dashboard provides an interactive overview of the key theaters, humanitarian impacts, and geopolitical forces shaping this volatile landscape.

A Historic High in Global Violence

Data from leading institutions reveals a disturbing trend: the world is experiencing levels of violence unseen since the mid-20th century. The number of distinct conflicts has surged, driven by both new wars and the dramatic worsening of existing ones.

Active State-Based Conflicts

(Highest since 1946)

+25%

Increase in Conflict Events

(2024 vs 2023)

+31%

Increase in Civilian Deaths

(From targeted violence in 2024)

State-Based Conflicts Over Time

Epicenters of Major Warfare

While conflict is widespread, several theaters stand out for their scale, intensity, and geopolitical implications. Select a conflict below to explore its dynamics and compare its human cost against other major crises.

Comparing the Human Cost

A Global Humanitarian Catastrophe

The proliferation of conflict has pushed aid systems to their breaking point, with record displacement and the return of famine as a weapon of war. Click on the chart segments to learn more about the world's largest displacement crises.

Forcibly Displaced Persons by Crisis (Top Regions)

Select a region on the chart

Click a segment of the donut chart to view detailed information about the humanitarian situation in that region, including the number of people in need, displacement figures, and the state of the humanitarian response.

Geopolitical Flashpoints & Risks

Intensifying rivalries between major powers are an active driver of instability. The following table, based on the Council on Foreign Relations' 2025 survey, outlines the top-tier contingencies threatening U.S. interests and global stability.

Tier I Contingency	Likelihood	Impact on U.S. Interests
Israel-Hamas war continuation and deepening crisis in Gaza	High	High
Increased conflict in the West Bank	High	High
Major Russian military gains in Ukraine	High	High
Escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel	High	High
Intensified Chinese pressure on Taiwan	Moderate	High
Disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure	Moderate	High
Aggressive Chinese actions in South China Sea	Moderate	High
Failure of stabilization in Haiti, accelerating state collapse	High	Moderate

The Evolving Character of Modern Warfare

Conflict in 2025 is being reshaped by new technologies and the revival of old strategies, creating a paradoxical military landscape that combines hyper-advanced systems with cheap, mass-produced weapons.

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The Drone Revolution

Inexpensive UAVs have democratized airpower, allowing non-state actors to challenge major powers. Ukraine alone is expected to produce over 2.5 million drones in 2025, highlighting their tactical importance but also their strategic limitations in holding territory.

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AI & Cyber Warfare

AI is enhancing targeting and intelligence, while AI-powered cyberattacks grow more sophisticated. The global economic cost of cybercrime is projected to hit $10.5 trillion in 2025, and the world is moving closer to the operational use of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems.

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Return of Industrial Warfare

The war in Ukraine has heralded the return of grinding, attritional warfare. Victory is now directly correlated with defense-industrial capacity—the ability to mass-produce munitions—exposing vulnerabilities in Western defense bases optimized for smaller conflicts.