2025: The Year of Entrenchment
The 2025 Global Security Assessment indicates a shift from dynamic maneuvering to systemic entrenchment. While the probability of new large-scale state-on-state wars remains moderate, existing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have hardened into attritional struggles. Simultaneously, the proliferation of autonomous systems is lowering the barrier to entry for lethal force.
High-Intensity Conflicts
⚡Up from 11 in 2024
Global Displacement
🏃Record High (+4% YoY)
Defense Spending
💰Global Aggregate Est.
Global Conflict Matrix
Interactive scatter plot comparing conflict intensity vs. duration.
Hover over bubbles for details on specific conflict zones.
Regional Threat Theaters
Detailed analysis of the three primary geostrategic pivot points in 2025. Select a region below to explore specific dynamics.
The War of Attrition: Year 4
As the conflict enters 2025, lines of contact have largely calcified. The strategic focus has shifted from territorial maneuver to industrial capacity—specifically the ability to produce artillery shells and FPV drones.
- › Resource Exhaustion: Both sides face critical manpower shortages, relying heavily on mobilization and electronic warfare.
- › Infrastructure Strikes: Energy grid targeting remains a primary winter tactic, affecting civilian resilience.
- › Aid Volatility: Western aid packages have shifted from heavy armor to air defense and long-range precision fires.
Artillery Shell Consumption vs. Production (Monthly Est.)
Regional Spillover & Multi-Front War
The security architecture of the Middle East remains fractured. 2025 sees a continuation of the "Ring of Fire" strategy, with non-state actors coordinating strikes across borders, complicating conventional deterrence.
Interactive Note: The chart illustrates the asymmetry in cost. Low-cost interception drones and rockets force high-cost defensive expenditures (Iron Dome, David's Sling).
Asymmetric Exchange Cost Ratio (Attacker vs. Defender)
Indo-Pacific: The Naval Buildup
While direct conflict remains avoided, 2025 marks a peak in naval tonnage production. The Taiwan Strait remains the world's most dangerous flashpoint, with blockade scenarios replacing invasion as the primary wargame focus.
- › Gray Zone Tactics: increased coast guard patrols and "quarantine" drills around islands.
- › A2/AD Bubbles: Expansion of Anti-Access/Area Denial missile ranges deep into the Pacific.
Naval Tonnage Launched (2020-2025 Trend)
The Automization of Kill Chains
2025 has cemented the dominance of "First Person View" (FPV) drones and loitering munitions. The key shift this year is the integration of terminal guidance AI, allowing drones to strike targets even under heavy Electronic Warfare (EW) jamming.
"The era of the $500 drone destroying the $5 million tank is no longer a theory; it is the statistical norm of the 2025 battlefield."
Key Tech Trends
Global FPV Drone Production Estimates (Units per Month)
The Human Toll
Behind the strategy and technology lies a deepening humanitarian crisis. 2025 has seen displacement numbers break historical records, largely driven by the conflict in Sudan and instability in the Sahel, often overshadowed by headlines in Europe and the Levant.
Critical Funding Gaps
Percentage of UN humanitarian appeal funded for 2025 (YTD).