2025: The Year of Entrenchment
The 2025 Global Security Assessment indicates a shift from dynamic maneuvering to systemic entrenchment. While the probability of new large-scale state-on-state wars remains moderate, existing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have hardened into attritional struggles. Simultaneously, the proliferation of autonomous systems is lowering the barrier to entry for lethal force.
High-Intensity Conflicts
⚡Up from 11 in 2024
Global Displacement
🏃Record High (+4% YoY)
Defense Spending
💰Global Aggregate Est.
Global Conflict Matrix
Interactive scatter plot comparing conflict intensity vs. duration.
Hover over bubbles for details on specific conflict zones.
Regional Threat Theaters
In-depth examination of the main geostrategic pivot points in 2025. Choose a region to delve into particular dynamics.
The War of Attrition: Year 4
By 2025, the conflict has reached a stalemate, with a shift in focus from territorial gains to the production of artillery shells and FPV drones.
- › Resource Exhaustion: Both sides are experiencing critical shortages in manpower and are heavily dependent on mobilization and electronic warfare.
- › Infrastructure Strikes: Targeting the energy grid continues to be a key winter strategy, impacting the resilience of civilians.
- › Aid Volatility: Western aid packages have transitioned from focusing on heavy armor to prioritizing air defense and long-range precision fires.
Artillery Shell Consumption vs. Production (Monthly Est.)
Regional Spillover & Multi-Front War
In 2025, the security landscape in the Middle East remains fragmented, with the 'Ring of Fire' strategy continuing to be implemented by non-state actors, leading to coordinated cross-border attacks that challenge traditional deterrence measures.
Interactive Note: The chart shows the imbalance in expenses caused by the use of affordable interception drones and rockets, leading to the need for costly defense systems like Iron Dome and David's Sling.
Asymmetric Exchange Cost Ratio (Attacker vs. Defender)
Indo-Pacific: The Naval Buildup
Although direct conflict continues to be avoided, 2025 sees a peak in naval tonnage production. The Taiwan Strait remains the most dangerous flashpoint globally, with blockade scenarios becoming the main focus in wargames instead of invasion.
- › Gray Zone Tactics: increased coast guard patrols and "quarantine" drills around islands.
- › A2/AD Bubbles: Expansion of Anti-Access/Area Denial missile ranges deep into the Pacific.
Naval Tonnage Launched (2020-2025 Trend)
The Automization of Kill Chains
By 2025, 'First Person View' (FPV) drones and loitering munitions have solidified their dominance, with the notable advancement of terminal guidance AI enabling strikes on targets amidst heavy Electronic Warfare (EW) jamming.
By 2025, it is no longer just a theory that a $500 drone can take down a $5 million tank; it has become the statistical norm of the battlefield.
Key Tech Trends
Global FPV Drone Production Estimates (Units per Month)
The Human Toll
Beneath the surface of the strategy and technology is a worsening humanitarian crisis, with record-breaking displacement numbers in 2025 due to conflict in Sudan and instability in the Sahel, often overlooked amidst headlines from Europe and the Levant.
Critical Funding Gaps
Percentage of UN humanitarian appeal funded for 2025 (YTD).